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Two years ago, this writer published an article for Newsvine called 12 Things That Will Become Reality By 2020. With the turn of the decade, it seemed reasonable to post up another dozen predictions. As a sci-fi writer, I enjoy trying to peer through the misty glass between us and the future, although sometimes I think the glass is smeared with Vaseline. It's a bit tricky.
1 - No More Dead Zones
By 2020, your cell phone and Internet access will operate almost anywhere you can see sixteen degrees of the sky, whether you are out in the middle of the Sahara Desert, or walking along the streets of Manhattan.
2 - North Korea Will Enter the Global Community
Kim Jong Il isn't going to live forever, although if he could will it by Official Order, he would certainly do so. He's already had at least one stroke, and it's unlikely he will make it into the next decade. After his death, hunger and suffering by the North Korean populace will force the new government to check into the Reality Hotel - and become an active member of the world community.
3 - POD Tech Will Surpass Offset Printing
There are two types of 'POD,' One is good (Print on Demand) and one bad (Publish on Demand). Print-on-Demand, the REAL 'POD,' is headed by industry-leader Lightning Source, and is rapidly catching up to old-fashioned offset book printing. Print-on-Demand is a system where books are printed and shipped as they are ordered by customers at Amazon, bookstores, wholesalers, libraries, and retailers. Until about 2001, most books and magazines were printed short-run using traditional offset presses. This also meant publishers and distributors had to use warehouse space to store all these books and magazines. With POD, this is no longer necessary. Eighteen months after Lightning Source opened their Milton-Keynes facility in London, they had printed and shipped more than eight million books and magazines. By 2020, the majority of print publications will be done in this manner. An added advantage to POD is that it levels the field between the Big Boys and the Small Presses. ('Publish on Demand,' often confused for POD, is where a company offers to publish your book for a fee. These are usually a ripoff.)
4 - Green Tech Will Be Completely Mainstreamed
This is an easy prediction, as demand for this technology is literally exploding and companies developing it are springing up everywhere. By the end of this decade, virtually every small electronic device will have a solar-recharge, hand-crank, or other power option that doesn't rely on throwaway batteries or a plug-in. Homes will be designed green from the start with both passive and active solar, wind turbines, or other clean generation as an integral part of the home. They will have a central control area, such as a special room in your garage, where you can monitor power usage between green and traditional power. You could compare this to how a hybrid car switches back and forth between the electric motor and the gasoline engine. In addition, gasoline-only cars will become a thing of the past. Ford Motor Company has already seen this coming. They are no longer funding any research-and-development on gasoline-only automobiles.
5 - The Distance Between the Haves and Have-Nots Will Increase
This is not good news, but is likely to happen. Since the early 1990's, the proliferation of upscale housing developments in America share some common traits. They often have one way in - and the same way out of the neighborhood. This isolates them from the rest of the local community. They often add a security guard box and a restrictive Homeowners Association to keep everyone in line. Although you wouldn't catch ME living in one of these gated prisons, they are (unfortunately) the future.
6 - True Fusion Power May Be Achieved
The idea of going to Mars or establishing a base on the Moon seem like difficult technological projects. But they pale in comparison to fusion. Over in France, several countries have a big project going called ITER, and they are chasing the rainbow of true fusion power. If successful, it means clean, unlimited, and safe energy for the planet. Unlike traditional nuclear reactors, fusion is neither dangerous nor radioactive. We should all hope they succeed, because out of all the predictions on this list, the successful development of fusion could free the world from the grip of fossil fuels once and for all. Simply put, fusion harnesses the same basic process as our Sun and creates more energy than it takes to run it.
7 - Famine
It took the entire length of human history until the year 1800 for the population on Planet Earth to reach one billion. Now we are adding another billion every fourteen years. This massive increase, coupled with global climate change, will undoubtedly cause more famine around the world. The only two ways to prevent this are population control and the development of more efficient power sources. Although the second item is going well, population control efforts are still minimal at best. Unfortunately, Nature will eventually take care of the problem on her own and this means starvation and suffering.
8 - White-Collar Crime Will Decrease
China is already taking harsh steps against what used to be slap-on-the-wrist and pay-a-big-fine stuff. And although taking people out and shooting them in the back of the head might be over the top, penalties are already increasing against white-collar crime worldwide. Public outrage against corporate criminals is reaching new heights, and governments are going to get tougher with the penalties. An early example could be Bernie Madoff, and he won't be the last.
9 - Terror Will Diversify Even More
Is there a 'College for Terrorism?' YES. It's called the Internet. Terrorist groups will continue to de-centralize themselves and operate more independently, relying on the internet for communications, discussions of targets, images meant to inflame, and to issue directives to loosely-knit memberships. The good news is that the historical record shows terrorism doesn't usually achieve its goals or have a long-term effect on world policy. The truth is they don't have the resources or the weapons. World efforts should be able to contain them as long as they don't get their hot little hands on a nuke. For a realistic explanation of how these guys really work, check the Newsvine article 'An Idiot's Guide to the Real Motives of Terrorism'.
10 - Business Travel Will Drop Significantly
As technology and virtual interaction becomes more prevalent, the need for human business travel will also lessen. There will still be business travelers, but far fewer in 2020 than now.
11 - Stunt Men Will Have Less Work in Hollywood
CGI technology ('computer-generated imagery') is already the norm in Hollywood. Entire films are being released that don't use a single human actor, except for blue-screen work and voice-overs. By 2020, most special effects will be done using CGI, as opposed to say...human beings and real explosives. The work of directors such as George Pal, (War of the Worlds, When Worlds Collide) Alfred Hitchcock, (The Birds) and Stanley Kubrick, (2001) will become real collector items.
12 - Household Robots That Work
Honda, with their ASIMO robot, is rapidly making an old dream possible: A real robot that can do chores around the house. At first, these devices will only be available to the rich, and then other companies will jump in and you'll be able to pick up one at your local Wal-Mart. After that, some bottom-feeder companies will probably offer up a more 'human' version that is capable of having sex with you. Don't blame the messenger for this last prediction - blow-up dolls have been around for years.
Whether any of these things come true, only time will be the judge.
Here are a few predictions from previous generations that did NOT come true:
'Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.' (Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895)
'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.' (Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943)
'There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.' (Ken Olsen, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977)
'The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.' (Western Union internal memo, 1876)
'Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.' (Marshal Ferdinand Foch, French commander of Allied forces during the closing months of World War I, 1918)
'The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?' (David Sarnoff's associates, in response to his urgings for investment in radio in the 1920's)
'Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.' (New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary rocket work, 1921)
'Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?' (Harry M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927)
'Everything that can be invented has been invented.' (Charles H. Duell, commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899)
